Fine wine 2020: Merchants predict flat prices

Fine wine merchants have predicted that the secondary market will run flat this year in the latest Liv-ex annual survey.

The fine wine exchange platform surveys its global members at the start of every year to get its prognosis for the year ahead.

In 2019 the trade was bullish about the market’s fortunes but, in the end, those hopes were dashed against the multiple rocks of Trump tariffs, Brexit and recession in Hong Kong. Hopes for average gains of 5% were left facing an index that fell 3%.

That slap on the wrist and a continuing global malaise, especially what is likely to be a very slow market in Asia due to the on-going Covid-19 outbreak, has made members bearish in their outlook for the year ahead.

On average, respondents to the Liv-ex survey predicted a 0.7% increase to the closing level of the Fine Wine 100 index this December.

Although 53% of respondents expected a gain to some degree, 45% expect the index to fall, while 2% think it will end 2020 in exactly the same place it ended 2019.

The most optimistic member predicts huge gains of 31% this year but the most pessimistic is looking at a 20% drop.