Fine wine 2019: Predictions vs reality

Liv-ex has reported that its global members largely over-estimated the performance of the secondary market at the beginning of 2019.

Fine Wine Exchange Liv-ex asks its members at the start of every year to estimate the closing level of the benchmark Liv-ex 100 index at the end of that year.

In 2019 merchants were generally bullish, 62% estimating an increase of some sort with 5.47% being the average predicted rise. In the event, the index fell 3%.

In 2019 merchants were also asked which sub-indices from the Fine Wine 1000 would be the best performers.

Banking on Burgundy, 68% of respondents thought the Burgundy 150 would be the best-performer but it ultimately turned out to be the worst, finishing the year down 8.7%.

The best performer turned out to be the Italy 100 which rose 4.7%, followed by the Champagne 50, up 2%.

All the other sub-indices failed to end the year in the black.

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