‘Cult wines’ less vulnerable to climate change, study finds

A study from Washington State University’s School of Economic Sciences found that rare and ultra-premium wines are hardier in the face of extreme weather conditions during the growing season.

Cult wines, defined as wines which can only be acquired from an allocation list or the secondary market, might be hypothesised to be more susceptible to fluctuations in quality depending on the vintage, given the high level they are at.

Professor Jill McCluskey, study co-author and director of the School of Economic Sciences, said: “Cult winemakers are striving for perfection. Each vintage is evaluated more closely, and there is an expectation of consistent high quality. Therefore, one might expect for weather variations to affect cult wines more than non-cult wines.”

However, the data painted a different picture.

Examining the price and scores for cult and non-cult wines from California (Napa and Sonoma specifically) and Washington (Walla Walla) across different vintages, the researchers found that the inverse was true, and that the scores of non-cult wines were more likely to be impacted by difficult conditions during the growing season than they were for cult wines.

Co-author Professor Ron Mittelhammer commented: “The fact that they [cult wines] were more insulated from the effects of weather variability was a very interesting discovery. The effects on non-cult wines were more consistent with our initial expectation, in terms of magnitude and statistical significance.”

As for why cult wines tend to exhibit more “homogeneous” quality from vintage vintage, it might be a direct result of them tending to come from what might be considered the optimum plots.

“It appears that many cult wine producers located their vineyards and wineries more advantageously in locations conducive to good weather and/or less weather variability. This leads to less variation in weather-induced quality effects, resulting in higher average quality wine with less variation in that quality,” said Mittelhammer.

The price is right

However, with regard to the pricing of cult wines, the study found that the secondary market value was often more sensitive to bad vintages than the release price.

The study found, especially in the case of cult wines from Walla Walla, rain during the early part of the growing season would negatively affect the re-sale value, closing the price gap. The Walla Walla AVA receives an average of 38.1cm of precipitation each year.

“That’s an interesting finding, and it’s consistent with our other research, which showed that the secondary market price reflects the ‘true value’ of cult wines,” commented McCluskey.

Mittelhammer argued that there is a great deal which producers of non-cult wines could learn from this, especially in light of ever-more extreme vintages due to climate change: “It could be beneficial for non-cult wineries to promote their wines more vigorously, underscoring the quality benefits resulting from a ‘good weather year’ relating to a given vintage. Such a marketing effort would likely have less impact for cult wines, given that they exhibit more homogeneous high quality from year to year.”

The researchers suggested that they may undertake a similar study on wines from Europe.

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