IWSR: 2035 will be ‘vastly different’ for the global drinks sector
Global alcoholic drinks consumption volumes are set to decline for six years before resuming growth in 2031, according to the IWSR. The data also notes that the rise of RTDs already signals the start of consumer preferences adapting. db reports.
The alcoholic drinks sector is changing according to research, offered by the IWSR, but while its analysis has estimated that, following declines to 2031, there is promise in the suggestion that global volume is forecast to recover almost all of its 2025 level by 2035. A stabilising move amounting to a 1% total volume decline over the decade.
Rebalancing
The projection, which is part of IWSR’s annual global data release, includes confirmed 2025 consumption data and IWSR’s first 10-year forecasts for all 160 national markets it monitors. According to the findings, the stabilisation in global volume from 2031 will be driven by two main factors: a “substantial rebalancing” of the global market, and continued growth in the worldwide drinking age population.
Over the next decade, the global beverage alcohol market is, according to the analysis, anticipated to be “shifting away from China, North America and Europe to India, South America and Africa”. From a global perspective, this is said to be “most clearly illustrated by looking at consumption by servings” with the research highlighting that “the different serving size volumes of different categories” is a factor to consider.
For instance, the number of beverage alcohol servings consumed in China in 2035 is forecast to be 19% lower than it was in 2025. Added to this, other large falls in total beverage servings consumed over the same period are set to be seen in the US (down 18%), Japan (down 15%), Germany (down 14%), and the UK (down 13%). Bucking this trend, servings consumed annually from 2025 to 2035 will, according to the data, surge in Mexico (up 13%), Vietnam (up 15%), Colombia (up 26%) and India (up 38%). Plus, when measured by servings, India is forecast to surpass the US in 2032 to become the second largest market for beverage alcohol in the world after China.
Moderation
The data also outlined that moderation, whether driven by lifestyle or economic factors, will continue to be a growing trend over the next decade. This can be seen by global annual per capita litres of pure alcohol being forecast to drop by half a litre by 2035 (a drop approximately equivalent to two bottles of spirits or a case of wine per person per year).
The research also revealed that, while this is considered to be a significant decline in consumption, the rate of decline is actually slowing. Plus, in the meantime, the population of legal drinking age consumers is forecast to grow by 9% over the same period. According to the data, this growth in consumer numbers is predicted to be sufficient to bring total global volume in 2035 to just 1% lower than 2025 volume.
At the category level, beer volume reflects the broader beverage alcohol trend by declining globally from 2025 to 2035 by 1%. The biggest decline can be seen in global wine volumes however, which are forecast to drop by 14%, while global spirits consumption is forecast to lose just 2% in volume.
In addition to updating its global forecasts, IWSR has also released confirmed 2025 data for all 160 markets it tracks. It has already revealed, for instance, that from 2024 to 2025, global total beverage alcohol volume declined by 2%. Among major categories over the same period, global beer volume declined 2%, global wine volume was down 5%, and global spirits volume lost 3%. At the same time however, the volume of RTDs consumed globally grew 3%.
The rise of the ready-to-drink category
In fact, RTDs will continue their strong growth with the category enjoying a predicted 17% volume lift forecast for the next decade.
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Speaking about the data and what this means for the sector, IWSR president and managing director Marten Lodewijks said: “The forecast stabilisation in global beverage alcohol volumes is good news for the industry, but there are still plenty of challenges ahead.”
Also offering further insight, IWSR head of consulting Luke Tegner explained: “In 2025, consumers continued seeking flavour exploration, convenience and ABV diversity to suit their consumption occasions. This is driving a shift in consumption away from more established categories like wine and spirits to RTDs. Global RTD consumption reached 1 billion 9 litre cases for the first time in 2025, and there is no sign of this trend abating anytime soon.”
At the national level, 66 of the 165 markets tracked by IWSR in 2025 saw the number of servings of beverage alcohol consumed grow from 2024 levels. 83 markets saw declines, and 12 markets remained flat (seeing a 0% change).
Looking more broadly, several of the world’s largest markets experienced meaningful declines. For example, China saw a 7% drop in servings consumed during 2025. The US saw a 4% decline in servings, Germany experienced a 5% drop in servings, and the UK saw servings decline by 2%.
Looking at the winners, geographically, the largest markets that experienced growth were India (up 4% in servings), Colombia (up 4% in servings), and South Africa (up 1% in servings).
Lodewijks reassured that “2035 will be a vastly different market landscape than the one we see today” but highlighted that “producers will need to cater to changing consumer tastes in established markets as well as prepare for significant changes in where consumption is taking place”.
Popular sub-categories of merit
Taking note of the changes will be paramount with the data revealing that several beverage alcohol subcategories have already enjoyed very strong global growth in 2025. These include: Non-alcoholic beer, which is up 8% in volume; Indian whiskey, which is a sub-category seen to have risen 4% in volume; stout, which within the beer category is showing it is up 4% in volume. RTD cocktails, which are up by 14% in volume and Soju, which outside Korea, has seen a 9% lift in volume.
For the first time since IWSR records began in 1990, the data is showing that total volume of spirits consumed worldwide exceeded the total volume of wine consumed. Indeed, both categories declined in volume in 2025, but spirits’ saw more moderate volume decline (down just 3%) making it sufficient for it to surpass the 5% dip in wine volume.
As predicted in last year’s forecast, non-alcoholic beer was the second-largest subcategory of beer by volume in 2025 and, in this year’s forecast, non-alcoholic beer is expected to double its share of the global beer market by volume from 2% in 2025 to 4% by 2033.
The suggestions from the IWSR are to assess the insight and forecast and consider areas to adapt to remain agile within the sector. For instance, as Lodewijks warned: “Companies that only rely on past successes to carry them through the next decade will face serious challenges.”
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