Adjustment of fine wine market sentiment ‘well underway’

There are indications of “an interesting change of sentiment” in the views and expectations of the fine wine market among the global trade, according to surveys of Liv-ex members, despite some caution remaining. 

Speaking at Liv-ex’s event earlier this month, head of market intelligence Tom Burchfield pointed to a survey of the global trade which predicted that the Fine Wine 100 will rise 2.1% in the next year. This was a marked contrast to members’ expectations when asked the same question a year ago. At that point, the overall consensus was that the index would fall by 1.9% during 2025 (although there was some regional diversity, with the UK trade, though still cautious, proving the most positive, seeing a probable 2.5% rise this year).

This marks a “welcome” change of mood after three “utterly brutal” years, James Miles pointed out at the event, but he warned that it was important “not to catastrophise”.

“We need reasons to be excited about wine,” he told attendees.

As he previously outlined to db, the last few years have seen a “classic inventory cycle”, and the market “is now doing what markets do and correcting those imbalances”.

All indicators suggest a recovery in wine prices “is already underway”, he said, pointing to bid:offer ratios bouncing back strongly, and one of the broadest measures of the market, the Liv-ex Fine Wine 1000 having risen every month since August.

Chinese wine imports have also started to rise for the first time in nearly ten years, he noted – and top-end Burgundy trade in Hong Kong has increased more consistently. Meanwhile, following the shock of Trump’s tariffs last April, US buyer activity has been rising since the summer, and falling inflation and lower interest rates around the world have proved to be “helpful tailwinds”.

“In my view, secondary market prices have already bottomed, particularly for older vintages, which are being consumed and are genuinely in short supply. The primary market for younger wines will take a little longer, but rising back vintage prices will be supported, and the adjustment is well underway.”

 

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