Bordeaux 2017: Prices lower than predicted

With the Bordeaux 2017 primeurs now receding further in the rear view mirror, Liv-ex has announced that the much discussed release prices were actually lower than its members had predicted – not that it helped much.

Prior to each campaign Liv-ex asks its 400 global members what it expects of the campaign in terms of prices and customer demand and so on.

Members are given a ‘shopping basket’ featuring 10 wines from across the Left and Right Banks and asked to predict the prices for a bottle of each ex-négoce.

On average, merchants predicted that the wines would come to €2,008 overall, an 11.4% discount on the 2016 wines from the same estates.

In fact the basket ended up costing €1,851 in all, a 17% discount on the 2016s and 7.8% lower than the merchants had predicted.

Some 77% of merchants overestimated how much the vintage was going to cost with only Pavie in fact costing more than expected (by over 5%).

La Mission Haut-Brion was the biggest surprise. The average price most merchants expected it to be released at was €283 per bottle but in fact it was 15% lower at €240.

Considering that this recent campaign has universally been branded the most disappointing since the 2013s, there is not much reason to celebrate.

One can only imagine how badly things might have gone had the wines been as expensive as many merchants predicted.

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