Fine wine prices peak in June
Liv-ex has found that price growth for fine wines peaks in June before dying away in the third and fourth quarters.
Looking at average monthly returns over 23 years from December 1988 to November 2011, the index found that in June at the height of the en primeur season, the Liv-ex Fine Wine Investables index had moved by just over 4%.
The next biggest months were March and May, which had seen 1.7% moves. Movement was weakest between September and December.
Just to prove that market volatility in 2008 and 2011 were not influencing these factors unduly, another graph was drawn up chronicling monthly returns between January 1989 and December 2010 which excluded 2008.
If anything the second chart reinforced June’s position as the height of price growth with an average 4.5% monthly return.
The second chart does, however, make clear that difficult conditions in 2008 have had an effect on trading the second half of the year.
In the first 1988-2011 chart, October’s movement was around 0.1%, this rose in the 1989-2010 chart to 0.8%. September, November and December also rose slightly in the second chart.
Generally though the theory that prices rise between January and June – with smaller rallies in March and May – before decelerating rapidly to the end of the year holds true.