Champagne sales unlikely to rebound in 2026
Following three years of declining shipments of Champagne, it’s hoped that the region will see a turnaround in 2026 – but that’s unlikely with production costs, exchange rates and market conditions as they currently are.
It was another drop for Champagne in 2025, albeit a small one of 2%, taking the region’s total annual shipments in the past year to 266 million bottles, representing the lowest level of the past 20 years (except for the anomalous 2020, when the first wave of Covid-related lockdowns saw shipments drop to 254m bottles from almost 300m the year before – see figures, here).
Having hit this low level in 2025 – which comes from a post-pandemic high of 326m bottles in 2022 – the key players in the region are of course hoping for a rebound, but, despite cautious optimism, such are the challenges for Champagne, significant growth is not being forecast by anyone db spoke to in the appellation during a visit last month – which was of course before the start of the war in Iran.
Indeed, Champagne Pol Roger president Laurent d’Harcourt told db on 12 February that the region should be “pleased” to reach the same level of shipments as 2025, before noting that it was the appellation’s collective intention to get back to around 270m bottles in 2026 – the total achieved in 2024.
Acknowledging the rapid nature of the decline since 2022, he said, “Champagne lost 55m bottles in two years, but maybe we were too high?” before adding, “Champagne has resisted pretty well,” referring to the difficult trading conditions for everyone in the drinks industry, and beyond.
Desirability assured
A similar view is held by Champagne Bollinger CEO Charles-Armand de Belenet, who told db that such is Champagne’s “desirability”, the product sells “with the right promotional strategy”, and hence its strong performance relative to a wine region such as Bordeaux that seems to be struggling despite price discounting.
Looking to the year ahead, however, he told db in mid-February, “For the whole region, I don’t forecast any rebound in 2026, but the good news is that the stock level in the market is quite low compared to [this time] last year.”
Indeed, it was an excess of Champagne at the start of 2025 that explained sluggish shipments of the product in the first six months of last year, which were then compensated for by re-ordering in the latter half of last year, with supply matching demand.
Continuing, de Belenet said, “From an economic and geopolitical point of view, I don’t see any positive momentum this year,” before noting, “A serious issue in 2026 is the exchange rate, which is quite bad.”
With a relatively strong Euro compared to the Japanese yen, US and Australian dollar and British pound, Champagne is expected to pass on price increases in its key export markets.
“It is impossible to offset 100% the exchange rate,” said de Belenet, admitting that the price of Champagne would have to go up this year, exacerbated by a 5-6% rise in the cost of goods, primarily due to grape prices.
“The bottles we are selling this year were produced in 2021 and 2022, when the price of grapes grew very fast, so when we deplete those stocks, we have a strong increase in costs,” he explained, with a strong euro making this situation worse.
Multiple challenges
Then of course there is a global market that remains challenged by a mix of negative factors, be it falling disposable incomes due to inflation, or the impact of conflict, be it in the Ukraine or Middle East.
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“There are three challenges: the cost of goods, the exchange rate, and market conditions, which is why I don’t forecast a rebound for Champagne, and why I am cautious for Bollinger this year,” he said.
Concluding on this topic, he then said, “We will need a strong action plan to help the brand for this difficult year.”
David Chatillon, co-president of the Comité Champagne and chairman of the Union des Maisons de Champagne (UMC) is also cautious in his outlook.
“The trends are difficult to read, and while we are hoping that the shipments will be up, if so, it will only be by a few million bottles; there is no significant rebound expected,” he told db last month.
That’s because he said, “the perspectives are not very different to 2024 and 2025,” noting, like de Belenet, the major impact of a strong Euro compared to “all other currencies except the Swedish krona and Swiss franc.”
Aiming for 300m
As for the idea that Champagne should get back to a global market size of 300 million bottles – to balance its average level of production – he said that such a scale is still hoped for by the region, from the perspectives of both the growers and houses.
“300m bottles is our aim for sure, but, collectively, we do not think we will reach 300m before three or even five years,” he said.
When asked why, he said, “Because we need to open new markets, which takes a lot of time and money,” adding that free-trade agreements between the EU and Merosur or India will take several years to come into force, and will need to be backed up by marketing investments by Champagne brands to promote the consumption of the product.
As for mature markets for Champagne, he stated, “We don’t see a real rebound, there is no real change in consumption trends.”
Indeed, the biggest export market for Champagne, the US, is unlikely to grow, with the impact of tariffs on the price of Champagne in the market being felt this year – a lot of stock was shipped before the tariffs took effect – while the aforementioned exchange rate impact will further increase the cost of the product.
“Champagne [price in the US] will be 15% more because of the tariffs and 10% more because of the exchange rate,” said Chatillon.
‘It’s in our hands’
Also commenting on Champagne resuming its 300m global market size, Champagne Drappier president Michel Drappier said that such a scale was possible, but warned against price discounting to achieve it quickly.
“It’s in our hands,” he began. “If the Champenois decide to make Champagne more democratic then we can reach 300m by being more popular – we can do that, but do we want to do that? he added. Continuing, he said, “However, if Champagne remains on [a path of] value creation, it may not reach 300m for a long time.”
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