Liv-ex: fine wine market only ‘at the start’ of recovery
The fine wine market is still only at the start of the recovery, according to its newly released January report, but Liv-ex’s co-founder and CEO James Miles remains optimistic about the outlook for 2026 and beyond. Arabella Mileham reports.
Speaking to the Drinks Business last week, Miles said that even though the market was still finding the bottom, particularly with younger wines as it works through an oversupply, there were lots of positive signs that demand and supply were coming back into balance.
The fact that prices are down 30% and more in some instances, and that global interest rates have come down a lot in the last two years – those two things are very supportive of a better market,” he said.
Greater tariff transparency
He pointed to the Chinese market starting to grow again “for the first time in a long time”, even though this was from a much lower level than in 2012. And the US, having seen a dip in Q2 last year was also returning, how that the tariff situation, while not ideal, was showing “a little bit more transparency”.
As the Liv-ex January summary showed, tariffs “have not been disastrous for the secondary market as a whole”, even though it prompted US buyers, who had been 2024’s most significant buying segment, to take “a backseat in 2025”. And European buyers stepped into this breech, with the total purchase from European buyers rising 48.2% by value year-on-year. And this trend doesn’t show signs of stopping in 2026, the report noted, with European buyers expected to continue to do so in 2026, even as US buyers are already coming back into the fold.
“We’re starting to see the Americans buying – they’re not quite back to where they were in Q1 of last year, but they’re perhaps 80% of the way back to that level,” Miles told db. “I think there are a lot of positives.”
As the Liv-ex report pointed out, the US trade continues to lobby for wine to be excluded from tariffs and if they are successful and a true unlocking of US demand were to join increased European and Asian demand, “then we would see the market decisively turn the corner.”
‘Not smooth sailing’
In the meantime, writing in the January report, Tom Burchfield, head of market intelligence at Liv-ex struck a note of caution, underlining that “we do not expect it to be smooth sailing from here” and that the market as a whole is expected to “bump along the bottom throughout 2026”.
In December, the Liv-ex 1000 (the broadest measure of the market) closed 2025 down 4.5%, while the average cost per case traded fell -12.3%. “This indicates that while the overall footprint of wines traded has remained similar over the past five years, 2025 saw increased trade volumes for lower-priced wines,” the report said, with total trade down 5.8% on 2024, and trade volumes up 7.2% above 2024.
Partner Content
Burchill, however, noted that there was an opportunity here.
“The downturn has essentially been the result of a demand:supply imbalance. If prices remain where they are for an extended period, it gives new collectors the opportunity to buy and drink fine wine, building up sustainable long-term demand that stems from a passion for fine wine rather than the chance to make a quick buck,” he said. “This will be critical as the traditional collector continues to step back, their cellars full.”
Cyclical nature
And as Miles pointed out, there is a highly cyclical nature to the wine market, in which “booms and busts are pretty regular”.
“I think this is just it’s just part of the normal cycle of things. We can be pretty certain there’s going to be another boom, we just can’t tell you exactly what the big driver is going to be, but I do see that this market is going to build momentum over the next three to five years, and we’ll probably get another boom in six to eight, because that’s the typical cycle.”
So what’s next?
The next thing on the horizon is the upcoming Bordeaux en primeur, but Miles said that it was too early to tell how the campaign would go, even though the wines are said to be good.
“I think the Bordelais will be tempted to raise prices on 2024 because they’re going to view it as a better vintage, but there’s also going to be more wine,” he said. Sentiment though is still pretty soft, “particularly around young wines”, and he warned that “unless they [the Bordelais] dramatically rethink their pricing strategies, I don’t think we’re going to have a stellar campaign”.
“I could be completely wrong on that, if they did feel inclined to be very generous on pricing. But my suspicion is that’s probably not going to happen, but we’ll see.”
The Liv-ex report puts it more baldly. “The very promising (if somewhat heat and drought reduced) 2025 vintage to be released at prices that excite,” it said. “Wines will need to be offered to end consumers at below the market price of comparable back vintages. Should stability continue to return over Q1, then an enticing EP campaign might come at the moment to kick the recovery into the next gear.”
Related news
VIK 2022: ‘the beginning of a journey toward self-sufficiency’
