‘2026 Won’t Be Easy’: Paragon Brands on the year ahead

Lower spend and shifting consumption patterns will define 2026, yet Chris Jones, managing director at Paragon Brands, sees opportunities for those willing to adapt.

Economic pressures, lower spend and reduced consumption will make 2026 “challenging”, but operators that adapt their offer and focus on pockets of growth can still win, according to Paragon Brands managing director Chris Jones.

Jones said the pressure on operators is now “greater than ever”, with success hinging on building propositions that are both efficient and culturally resonant. Consumers, he noted, are demanding engaging brands and sharable experiences.

Some operators are already demonstrating the model. Mitchells & Butlers reported a revenue increase in 2025, attributing growth to operational efficiency and centralisation, as well as investment in its estate and refining its proposition to cater for a range of occasions and value expectations. Meanwhile Laine Pub Co was recognised in 2025 for reimagining the community pub, using distinctive décor and hosting both lower tempo experiences such as life drawing classes and higher energy ’90s-themed events to appeal to Gen Z.

Range investment also played out in retail. Sainsbury’s was celebrated for its spirits offer in 2025, having broadened its range to give customers more choice and value. Polish vodka brand Żubrówka was among the beneficiaries. Jones argued the supermarket had prioritised a shopper that values choice over a tight edit of “the select few”.

“The bottom line – 2026 won’t be easy,” Jones said. “But the opportunities exist and we can be cautiously optimistic.”

Shot culture grows up

Miniature cocktails and layered shots are rising across the on-premise. Seven in 10 consumers still drink shots on a night out and 49% of Brits now prefer cocktail shooter shots to traditional shots.

Licor 43’s ‘Baby Beer’ — Licor 43 topped with cream liqueur — is tapping into demand for low-skill, high-impact drinks that deliver taste, ease of serve and sharable moments. Jones said the serve works because group rituals drive repeat purchase and have higher round participation, while the smaller serve format aligns with moderation without reducing spend.

More than 5,000 venues added Baby Beer to shooter menus last year, and Paragon Brands’ data indicates it can lift overall shooter sales by +34%.

Moderation without abandonment

Consumers across all age groups are moderating. NIQ data shows almost half (45%) of on-premise visitors now engage in zebra striping, alternating between alcoholic and non-alcoholic options, and 92% of non-alcohol buyers also purchase alcohol-containing products.

Jones described this as an era of flexible drinking. No and low products are not displacing alcohol, he argued, but extending the occasion. They are also bringing more dwell time, spend and people into venues.

Pub visit frequency rose 4.3% in 2025, yet alcohol volumes declined, signalling alcohol is no longer the sole footfall driver. Jones called on operators to integrate no and low seamlessly into menus rather than separating them.

Caleño’s tropical non-alcoholic spirits range is positioned as an example of the wider cultural shift, with a brand proposition that plays into well-being, lifestyle and high tempo social occasions alike.

Far-flung flavours and the rise of the spritz

Brits continue to borrow tastes and serves from around the world, though Jones expects the biggest influence this summer to come from Italy rather than Asia. Brits under 35 are the heaviest consumers of Italian cuisine and Italian dining culture in the UK, and overall it remains the country’s number one food from abroad.

At the same time, the spritz has gained traction with both consumers and the trade thanks to its simple execution and low training requirement. Jones expects a “Summer of Spritz”, alongside a shift from bitter to citrus-forward expressions. Limoncello is set to lead, with Villa Massa Limoncello — the world’s number one premium Italian limoncello at 30% ABV — positioned to capitalise. Made using hand-picked Sorrento PGI lemons and a family recipe dating back to 1890, the brand captures “the essence of southern Italy”.

Spanish influence is also growing. Spain remains the number one holiday destination for Brits and imports of Spanish food and drink continue to rise. Paragon Brands is backing Licor 43’s Ibiza Spritz for summer 2026 — Licor 43 mixed with grapefruit soda and lemon juice over ice — as it aligns flavour trends with an established serve format.

Jones said investing in spritz menus allows operators to sit at the intersection of major summer trends: continental tastes, lighter drinks, trending flavours, flavour contrasts and ease of assembly both in-venue and at home.

Sunshine in a glass

Flavour contrasts are emerging as a defining trend across cocktail menus, driven by a consumer appetite for experimentation and depth. Jones identified multi-layered profiles that balance bright acidity, tangy sharpness and luscious sweetness as the combinations to watch.

Sweet-and-spicy (swicy) and sweet-and-sour (swour) serves will feature more prominently in 2026, while classic fruit-forward expressions evolve. Flavour pairings such as lemon and lime, chilli and mango, pineapple and chilli, and lemon, grapefruit and yuzu are expected to pave the way for a wave of Chilli Sours.

The trend is being fuelled by rapid NPD in RTDs and cans, categories that lend themselves to fruit and contrasting flavours and encourage trial.

Jones added that success will come from balanced pairings tailored to daytime drinks, aperitivo, before-dinner and dessert occasions. Brands already leaning in include June by G’Vine, which launched a Mango and Passionfruit Gin to target contemporary flavour seekers, and Żubrówka, which offers variants such as Mango and Passionfruit, Raspberry and Rosé liqueur.

Mexico’s moment

Tequila continues to premiumise, with the Margarita acting as a gateway serve. Peach, pineapple, watermelon and spicy Margarita twists have broadened appeal, while Jones expects 2026 to be the year of the Paloma and premium sipping expressions.

Scrutiny around sourcing, ageing and transparency is increasing, with provenance and authenticity playing a stronger role in purchase decisions. Jones said this is driving preference for 100% agave spirits, helped by celebrity associations and social status signals.

Excellia Tequila Grand Cru is one brand positioned to benefit. Made using 100% Blue Weber agave and aged for 18 months in Grand Cru Sauternes wine casks and Cognac barrels, it brings together Mexican authenticity and French expertise with Maison Villevert. Its Blanco was named “World’s Best Tequila” at the World Tequila Awards last year. Jones said the brand has earned its place on back bars and in drinks cabinets across the UK.

Spirits as social currency

Jones expects spirits to play a bigger role in self-expression and identity. Consumers are seeking experiences that reflect their values and sense of belonging, mirroring the trajectory seen in tequila.

Żubrówka is among the brands leaning into this dynamic through its Be More Zu platform, positioning the Polish vodka around creativity, boldness and authenticity. The brand is focused on building a like-minded community across retail and hospitality in 2026. Its range includes Bison Grass Vodka — containing a blade of grass from the Białowieża forest and often served as an Apple Zu with apple juice and cinnamon — and Biała.

Martin Millers is targeting a more affluent spirits drinker, aiming to convert bartender favour into consumer loyalty as a ‘reward’ gin for discerning drinkers who treat their brand choices as a personal statement.

Jones said venues, retailers and brands that understand their consumer and participate authentically in their world will flourish. He added they will do so by cultivating narratives that reflect lived experience, designing loyalty and community touchpoints, and integrating into cultural moments — including music, food and lifestyle — not as sponsors but as contributors.

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