EU warns of decade-long wine downturn

Younger consumers drinking less alcohol and a wider shift towards moderation are set to drive a structural decline in EU wine consumption and output, according to Brussels’ latest outlook.

Wine consumption in the EU is forecast to decline over the next decade as drinking habits shift, younger consumers moderate their intake and competition from other beverages intensifies, according to the European Commission’s latest agricultural outlook.

The EU Agricultural Outlook 2025-35 projects wine consumption in the bloc will fall by 0.9% a year until 2035, reducing average intake to around 19.3 litres per capita by the end of the period – a 9% drop compared to the 2021-25 average.

Younger drinkers changing habits

The Commission attributes the decline to health-driven consumer behaviour, policy support for moderate drinking and increased competition from other categories. It noted that younger drinkers “in particular” tended to consume less alcohol, and highlighted a broader shift towards more “upmarket” wines.

The fall is not uniform across the EU, but countries with historically high wine consumption – including France and Germany – are seeing some of the steepest declines.

Growth in alternative formats remains limited. Sales of “wine-based drinks”, including no and low alcohol wines, are increasing, but the Commission expects volumes to “remain small” over the outlook period.

Production and vineyard area expected to contract

Weaker domestic consumption, combined with softer demand in key export destinations, is expected to weigh on EU production. The report forecasts output will decrease by 0.5% a year to around 138 million hectolitres by 2035.

The Commission also pointed to a “projected reduction in vineyard areas of 0.6% per year between now and 2035”, which it said could be a “major reason” for future declines in production, “assuming weather conditions and thus average yields remain stable”.

Several producing countries are already grappling with surplus stocks and have called on the EU to support vine grubbing-up initiatives, including France and Germany. In December, Members of the European Parliament and the European Council reached a preliminary agreement on measures to support the wine sector, including the use of EU funds for vine uprooting.

Export pressure from US and UK downturns

The Commission warned that wine export growth is at risk, citing a “temporary” slowdown in shipments to the US, the EU’s largest export market for wine. Exports to the UK, the bloc’s second-largest market, are also falling.

Driven by these trends, EU wine exports are forecast to decline by 0.6% a year between 2025 and 2035, while imports are projected to fall by 1.9% a year over the same period.

Although demand for EU wine is expected to grow in Latin America and Africa, the Commission said this would not be sufficient to offset declines in the bloc’s largest markets.

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