Champagne shipments to US slump but UK demand soars
Champagne exports to the US fell sharply in August as Trump’s tariffs took their toll, with both value and volume plunging. But strong shipments earlier in the year and buoyant UK demand are providing some relief for producers.
Champagne shipments to the USA in August fell back sharply, with the volume down by 41.5% while value dropped by a significant 56.8% as Trump’s European tariffs bite. However, because producers were expecting the imposition of tariffs on French wine exports to the US, in line with Trump’s threats, many had taken the precaution of shifting more stock across the Atlantic earlier in the year, and as a result, volume is still ahead by 10.3% to the end of August.
Value and profitability in this market in the first eight months have, however, taken a bit of a hit, with overall value now only just 0.3% ahead of the same period in 2024 and the average price dropping by 9.1%. What the vital final four months of the year hold is unknown, but if the tariffs stay in place for the rest of the year, some stock destined for the USA may find its way to European markets, which is likely to depress prices there.
Mixed picture in Japan and other export markets
In Japan, the third-ranked export destination for Champagne, after the UK, and a notably high-value one, exports in August were still ahead by 3.8% in volume, but value was down 7.1%, with average prices dropping 10.5%. Year-to-date, the picture looks better, with volume up 8.7% and value not far behind at 7.5%.
Out of the top 15 export markets, only four did not grow in volume terms in the first eight months of 2025, namely the three mature European markets of Germany, Italy and Belgium, respectively fourth, fifth and sixth in terms of importance, plus China. But average prices are slipping in ten of the top 15 markets, and with the current oversupply and weak demand, that decline looks likely to continue.
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UK volumes surge ahead of Christmas promotions
The 42.5% jump in shipments to the UK market in August is out of kilter with the other top ten destinations, none of which saw double-digit growth and six of which declined in volume terms. The likely explanation of the UK volume increase is thought to be the moving of stock destined for Own Label pre-Christmas promotions in the UK’s supermarkets, something which started in mid-September (see UK supermarkets slash Champagne prices ahead of Christmas 22/9 DB online) and this is borne out by the value of these increased shipments only rising by 29.4% and the average price of Champagne to the UK dropping by 11.1% in the first eight months.
Nielsen figures confirm trends in the UK off-trade
The Nielsen figures for the UK off-trade in the year to 7 September further back this analysis up. White Champagne sales were up 5% in volume in this period and by 3% in value, with the average price per bottle dropping very slightly from £26.55 to £26.14. Rosé over the same period fell in volume terms by 5% and in value by 2% with the average price per bottle still up from £35.80 to £37.12. Total private label in the same period grew by 19% in volume and 13% in value.
English sparkling wine poses a growing challenge
Another worry for the large international brands in the competitive UK market is that it’s strongly rumoured there will be a significant volume of inexpensive English sparkling wine offered by the grocers over the final quarter of the year, with price points as low as £10 a bottle. This is well below the current average UK selling price for English fizz, which has dropped in the year to 6 September (Nielsen) but only from £24.24 to £23.70 a bottle.
English fizz is also performing better than Champagne at the moment, with volume up 9% and value ahead by 7% in the year to 6/9/2025. And English sparkling rosé, that accounts for 23% of the sector, versus Champagne rosé’s 15% share, was up 5% in volume and 10% in value in the UK off-trade, according to the Nielsen figures (year to 6/9/2025).
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Looking forward to inexpensive high quality champagne by Xmas !
Thanks Donald.
PS In the USA carbonated wine is, or certainly was mislabelled and mis-sold as champagne.