Australian wine exports surge on China rebound, but global outlook mixed

Australian wine exports are on the rise in value and volume in the year to June 2025, according to Wine Australia’s latest export report. However, analysts point out exports are still significantly down on pre-Covid levels, given the sector’s previous all-time lows in recent years. 

The reopening of the China market following the removal of tariffs on Australian bottled wine in March 2024 has been the primary driver behind the growth. Exports to mainland China reached AU$893 million, up 123% year-on-year, representing 85 million litres.

However, Wine Australia Manager, Market Insights, Peter Bailey cautioned that growth is beginning to level off: “The quarter ended June 2025 was 35 per cent smaller in value than the same quarter in the previous year. This indicates that the level of exports to mainland China may be normalising after the initial re-stocking phase.”

Despite the rebound, Bailey noted that Chinese demand remains significantly below previous highs. “The return of mainland China offers a valuable market, with global wine consumption at its lowest level since 1961. However, it has only had a small impact on total export volume, as the volume shipped to mainland China is half of what it was at its peak in 2018,” he said.

“The market is now only a third of the size it was in 2019. In the past 12 months, imports from France, Italy, Spain, and Chile have all declined,” he added.

Broader market challenges

Exports to markets outside of mainland China declined by 11% in value to AU$1.59 billion and by 6% in volume to 554 million litres. The drop was partly attributed to a reduced supply of export-ready wine following three smaller vintages, as well as softer demand in key markets.

Exports to the United States fell by 12% in value to AU$314 million – the lowest level in more than two decades – and by 10% in volume to 111 million litres. Wine Australia cited several contributing factors: changing consumption patterns post-COVID, a decline in younger wine drinkers, increased competition from other alcohol categories, and ongoing economic and political uncertainty, including import tariffs.

UK exports remained relatively stable in value, slipping 1% to AU$350 million, but fell 6% in volume to 204 million litres. While unpackaged exports declined, packaged wines priced between AU$2.50 – $4.99 and above AU$7.50 per litre grew by 4% and 20% respectively. Australia retained a 23% share of off-premise wine sales in the UK.

Canada saw a 7% increase in value to AU$157 million, despite a 10% drop in volume to 61 million litres. The value growth was supported by higher packaged wine exports and a likely lift in shelf sales after Canadian liquor boards removed American wines in response to US tariffs on Canadian goods.

In Southeast Asia, exports rose 4% in volume, driven by growth in Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia. Though volatile year-on-year, exports to the region have grown by an average of 6% annually since 2020.

Market shares and varietals

Asia accounted for 55% of Australian wine export value, followed by Europe (21%), North America (19%), Oceania (4%), and Other (1%). Export value increased across all price points, with wines above AU$10 per litre growing 23% to AU$1.17 billion.

By variety, Shiraz remained the leading export at 169 million litres (up 11%), followed by Chardonnay (138m litres, down 5%) and Cabernet Sauvignon (97m litres, up 8%).

Australia exported to 116 destinations over the year, with 1,806 active exporters and 21,583 products shipped. On average, 16.3 million glasses of Australian wine were consumed overseas each day.

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