Global alcohol volumes fell 1% in 2024
The dip was driven by declines in the US and China, but IWSR highlights emerging growth opportunities, from Tequila and no-alcohol beer in the US to premiumisation trends in China, Canada and Spain.
Total beverage alcohol (TBA) volumes dipped by 1% worldwide in 2024, according to new data from the IWSR.
The downturn was primarily fuelled by a 3% decline in the US and a 5% drop in China. In the former, all categories apart from RTDs saw declines, while every category reported declines in China.
Political and economic uncertainty were behind the US decline, according to IWSR, while China’s weakening economic growth, real estate crisis and ageing population were cited as key factors.
Despite the downturn, the analysis pointed to pockets of future growth.
While trading conditions in the US remain difficult, it accounts for the five biggest value growth opportunities among developed markets between 2024 and 2034, according to IWSR forecasts: cocktails and long drinks, no-alcohol beer, Tequila, US whiskey and hard tea.
Bright horizons
Notably, no-alcohol beer volumes surged by 23% in 2024, and are forecasted to expand at a CAGR of 18% between 2024 and 2029.
The insights company attributed the category’s popularity to wellness trends, innovation, more on-trade draught options, celebrity endorsements and ecommerce opportunities.
Super-premium beer also stood out, as the only beer price tier to grow in 2024 at 2%. It is predicted to expand at a CAGR of 4% to 2029, whereas beer as a whole is expected to drop by a CAGR of 3%.
Agave spirits are also expected to grow by a CAGR of 1% to 2029, with consumers demanding authenticity, product integrity and balanced pricing.
Moreover, premium agave is forecasted to accelerate at a CAGR of 6%, whereas super-premium agave is expected to plummet by 7%.
Premium offerings
Marten Lodewijks, IWSR US president, said: “In this new phase of more measured growth for Tequila, focused on premium price points, reposado has emerged as a clear winner, delivering strong growth due to its approachable price point and smooth taste profile.”
In the RTD category, hard tea shone, with volumes up 31% in 2024.
While RTDs are expected to grow at 1% between 2024 and 2029, hard tea is predicted to surge at 11%.
“More premium, spirit-based hard tea offerings blend the appeal of classic iced tea with the sophistication of real spirits, attracting consumers seeking flavourful, lower-ABV options,” added Lodewijks.
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In China, premium beer was the only beer price band to grow in 2024, expanding volumes by 1% as total beer fell 5%.
What’s in store for beer
“Although consumers in China are now drinking less beer, they are looking for quality, which has led to rapid premiumisation,” said IWSR research director, Shirley Zhu. “This has been driven by local brewers releasing premium lines and locally-produced foreign brands.”
IWSR also predicted growth for premium and super-premium wine, against a backdrop of long-term category decline, driven by heightened interest in high-quality local wines, particularly from the Ningxia region.
China also saw drinkers turn away from dark spirits, with casual drinking and cocktails boosting the imported white spirits category.
Gin volumes plummeted by 20% in 2024, while vodka was up 4%. The report forecasted 2024-29 CGARs of a 5% hike for gin, and 4% for vodka.
Zhu said: “The landscape of China’s TBA market has started to change as consumers demand different drink options for varied occasions, and it will look very different in a few years.
“Brands and distributors will need to work extra hard to gain, or even maintain, their market positions. However, continued growth of the middle class, and more confidence in that group about their finances, will support a sustainable recovery in the medium to long term.”
Eyes on Canada
In the report, IWSR also marked Canada as a country to watch. It said the trade war with the US could open up opportunities for domestic brand owners and non-US imports.
According to IWSR consumer research, Bevtrac, conducted in May 2025 among LDA adults in Canada, 69% said they had stopped buying US alcohol products, with 67% saying they were very unlikely to do so in the future.
Richard Halstead, chief operating officer of consumer insights at IWSR, said negative consumer sentiment toward the US is expected to persist until at least the 2028 presidential election, with American whiskey and wine among the hardest-hit categories.
Across the pond in Spain, premium-plus beer growth had also accelerated, with affluent drinkers driving the segment’s recovery.
Shifting habits
“Investment and innovation into new brands and styles has fomented fast-paced premiumisation, allowing beer to penetrate occasions in which it previously struggled, such as the night on-trade,” explains Emily Neill, chief operating officer of research at IWSR.
Still wine was also a strong performer, thanks to the growth in lower-temp, food-oriented occasions.
Neill added: “White wine will continue to underline overall category development going forward, as it brings in new consumers and penetrates a broader range of occasions.
“Investment into white wine-producing regions and grapes is already reaching unprecedented levels.”
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