What impact does Neal Martin have on the Bordeaux market?
When Liv-ex members were asked which of the critics would affect their Bordeaux en primeur buying decision the most this year, Neal Martin (Vinous) topped the rankings once again. We examine the effect the leading critic has on sales, and how his scores compare with the market prices.
Martin recently released his Bordeaux 2022 scores and tasting notes, in which he identified three exceptional wines, which he referred to as “snow-capped peaks” with the potential for “perfect scores”.
Looking back at his average scores for 57 leading Bordeaux wines over the past 17 years and comparing them with the wines’ average market price reveals some interesting opportunities in the Bordeaux secondary market.
With Martin considered by many as being the most respected en primeur critic, it would be expected that vintages with high scores would all be associated with higher market prices. This trend is evident in vintages such as 2005, 2009, and 2010.
However, not all back vintages follow this pattern, and instead, some have higher market prices despite lower scores in comparison with more recent vintages. These instances align with the traditional pricing pattern for fine wines, by which they tend to appreciate in value with age. As such, some of the more recent vintages from the past few years offer relative value against older, more prestigious ones – and they are also more widely available to buy.
For example, the oldest vintage in our comparison, 2005, has an average Martin score of 94.12 points, and the highest average market price of all the wines we compared (£2,735 per 12x75cl). 2016, on the other hand, has the highest average score of 95.24 points but comes at a lower average market price of £2,105 per 12x75cl.
Consequently, wines from 2016 are on average 23% cheaper than 2005 wines, making the vintage an attractive one to purchase. It’s worth noting, however, that 2005 benefits from nine more years in bottle and that its wines are entering their drinking window.
Those looking for value could also consider the 2020 and 2019 vintages. They have average Martin scores of 95.14 points and 95.23 points respectively – just shy of the 2016 – and offer an average discount of 9% and 5% to that vintage.
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2020 wines are also rated higher on average than wines from the 2009 and 2010 vintages, and available at a discount of 24% and 25% to those older years respectively.
The 2013 vintage stands out with the lowest average Martin score of 89 points, and perhaps not surprisingly the lowest average market price of £1,320 per 12x75cl, but subsequent vintages show a rebound, with higher scores and increasing average market prices. Notably, the 2018, 2019, and 2020 vintages consistently surpass the overall average market price, accompanied by higher overall average Martin scores. This could be due to increasingly limited supply as volumes harvested, produced and released have dwindled in recent years, or perhaps an improvement in winemaking techniques leading to higher critics’ scores.
Despite their reputation as lesser Bordeaux vintages, 2017 and 2021 still boast average Martin scores of 93.11 and 92.25 (lower than their peers but nonetheless very respectable). As such, they still offer potential value, with an attractive average market price of £1,520.12 and £1,714.30 respectively – a discount of 28% and 19% on the top-scoring 2016 vintage.
With an average Neal Martin score of 94.84 points, very close to 2016, it will be interesting to observe the pricing patterns of the 2022 vintage. At this stage it looks like 2016 might be a better bet.
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