US tariffs hit Scotch whisky as exports fall 15% by volume

New figures from the Scotch Whisky Association show US shipments sliding sharply after tariffs returned, with producers warning that rising domestic costs and global trade pressures are pushing the industry to breaking point.

Scotch whisky exports to the United States have fallen significantly since tariffs were reintroduced, with shipment volumes down 15% between May and December 2025, according to fresh data from the Scotch Whisky Association (SWA).

The figures, released as part of the SWA’s annual export report, show the impact of a 10% tariff imposed in April 2025 across all Scotch whisky categories. The US remains the industry’s most valuable export market, but exports are now lower both in value and volume compared with the previous year.

Global exports edge lower

Globally, Scotch whisky exports fell by 0.6% in value in 2025 to £5.36bn, while volumes dropped by 4.3% to the equivalent of 1.3bn 70cl bottles, or 43 bottles per second.

This compares with exports of £5.4bn in 2024. The SWA attributed the decline to a combination of international tariffs, higher costs of doing business in the UK and softer consumer demand across key markets.

US market under pressure

Full-year exports to the US declined by 4% in value to £933m in 2025, while volumes fell by 9.2% to 120m bottles. The effect of tariffs was more acute in the months following their introduction, with export value down 7% and volume down 15% between May and December.

The SWA warned that pressure could intensify further, with the sector nearing the end of a five-year suspension of a 25% single malt tariff linked to the Boeing–Airbus dispute. That tariff previously cost Scotch whisky producers more than £600m in lost exports between 2019 and 2021, and there are concerns tariffs could rise to 35% from July this year.

The trade body has called on the UK Government to finalise a deal with the US to restore zero-tariff trade, an issue it said has been raised directly with President Trump by Prime Minister Keir Starmer and First Minister John Swinney.

Industry warns of closures

Mark Kent, chief executive of the SWA, said the sector was facing pressures “not felt for decades”, driven by both international trade barriers and rising domestic taxes and regulation.

“The international trading environment continues to be challenging for Scotch Whisky producers, with tariffs and geo-political tension causing significant turbulence in some key markets,” he said. “At home, the industry faces soaring costs, from year-on-year duty increases to new packaging taxes.”

Kent added that spirits duty has risen by more than 17% over the past three years, impacting jobs, investment and economic growth. With some distilleries already halting or reducing production, the SWA warned that more businesses could close permanently in 2026 without support from Westminster and Holyrood.

Mixed picture across markets and categories

Elsewhere, export performance was uneven. India strengthened its position as Scotch whisky’s largest market by volume, with shipments rising 15% to 220m bottles, and became the third largest by value at £286m. Turkey also recorded strong growth, with export value up 43% to £255m.

By contrast, exports to France fell by 3.6% in value and 14% in volume, while Asia Pacific saw an overall decline of 8.3% in export value, despite volumes remaining broadly flat.

Category data pointed to a slowdown in premium spending. Single malt exports fell by 6% in value to £1.6bn, with notable declines in China, France and Singapore. Blended Scotch was more resilient, rising 0.8% in value to £3.2bn, supported by growth in markets such as India and Brazil.

Despite the challenges, Kent said the industry’s long-term potential remained strong, provided governments acted quickly on trade and tax.

“In order to realise this future potential, finalisation of a deal to return zero-tariff trade to the US, vigorously pursuing trade deals with Thailand, Mercosur and Gulf Cooperation Council countries, and no further tax increases in the UK must be immediate priorities,” he said.

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