What will the fine wine market do in 2026?

Following the “roller-coaster” that was 2025, what is the outlook for fine wine in 2026? Liv‑ex’s latest report highlights the key market shifts last year, and what they might signal for the next 12 months.  

1. A degree of optimism has returned

First out of the gate is an element of optimism, a rather rare commodity in recent months. As the Liv‑ex 2025 in Review: Key Market Shifts and Signals for 2025 report points out, all of its major indices have risen consistently since September 2025, “giving the fine wine market a degree of optimism” for 2026. It noted in particular the increase of bid:offer ratios (“a barometer of market sentiment and reliable indicator of future price movements”) in the second half of the year, followed by prices, and trade values and volumes rising throughout September and October. The autumn too saw the company talk about early signs of recovery on the Asian market, even though “the increased trade… remains stop-start in nature”.

As Tom Burchfield, head of market intelligence, notes, “there is a sense that the market is beginning to turn the corner”. He points out to sentiment in the Asian market improving, European buying “taking up much of the slack left by a US pullback”.

“If these green shoots continue to take hold over the first half of the year, we might finally be able to declare the market has entered recovery,” he said.

2. Continued uncertainly for the US

There’s no question about it, President Trump’s tariffs on EU alcohol hurt the market. As Liv-ex noted, the threat of 200% tariffs in March 2025 proved to be “a gut punch that winded” the market which at that point had seen some tentative positivity. When tariffs were confirmed in April, albeit at the far lower rate of 15%, “US buyers withdrew”.

The effect was not only the tariffs themselves, but also the impact they had on currency. A weakened dollar made fine  wine more expensive for US buyers and the buying segment that had been the most significant in 2024, “took a backseat” in 2025.  Liv-ex pointed out that US purchase value finished the year 43.6% below the 2024 level and region particularly hurt were those that had benefited “consistently” from US demand. This included Italy (where US buyers accounted for 43.2% of the total purchase value of Italian wine) and Champagne.

3. European buyers “finally seeing value”

One of the upsides to the FX though, is that while the Euro strengthened in 2025, this didn’t tend to affect European buyers buying wines from European sellers. As a result, activity form European buyers stepped up during 2025, Liv-ex noted, with the value of total European purchases rising 48.2% year-on-year. One area to benefit from this was Tuscany, with European buyers making up for the substantial decline of US buyers of overall Italian wine.

4. Crunch time for Bordeaux

Last year’s Bordeaux en primeur was, as has been widely acknowledged something of a damp squib (or “disastrous”, Liv-ex said), with sales from top UK merchants down 60%. The report argued that “the balance of power has shifted away from the producers, with reports of negociants refusing allocations” and that “it can’t be underestimated how much damage a poor campaign does for the Bordeaux brand.”

Bordeaux’s upcoming en primeur is one that will have to be mindful of these factors, and offered with “prices that excite”, which means below the market price of comparable back vintages.  “Should stability continue to return in Q1, then an enticing EP campaign might come at the moment to kick the recovery into the next gear,” it said.

Meanwhile, Bordeaux on the secondary market fared slightly better. Admittedly, its overall share fell again, from 36.3% in 2024 to 35.5% at the end of 2025, but Liv-ex noted a rise in the Fine Wine 50 in the last quarter of the year, with bid:offer ratios also increasing. “There does remain a glut of young wine on the market, but the outlook for Bordeaux is better than it was six months ago”, it concluded.

5. But don’t be complacent!

The report finished with a note of caution. “We do not expect it to be smooth sailing from here”, it states, warning that “as a whole, the market will bump along the bottom throughout 2026”. On the plus side, “if prices remain where they are for an extended period, it gives new collectors the opportunity to buy and drink fine wine, building up sustainable long-term demand that stems from a passion for fine wine rather than the chance to make a quick buck.”

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