WineCap charts 2025: ‘The speed of the rebound astonished us’

Fine wine tiptoed out of its longest downturn in more than a decade in 2025, helped by returning US demand and a quiet resurgence in Champagne and Tuscany. Following the release of the company’s annual report, WineCap CEO Alexander Westgarth spoke to db about tariff clarity and projections for 2026.

WineCap’s CEO Alexander Westgarth described 2025 as a year in which the market flinched, steadied itself, then regained its poise with surprising alacrity. Speaking to the drinks business, he said, “What surprised me the most was the speed of the rebound once tariff clarity emerged. The initial shock of the proposed 200% US tariffs naturally created hesitation in the market as Champagne was hit particularly hard in H1. But as soon as the final 15% rate was announced in July, buyers returned quickly, especially to regions that suffered the most early on. Moreover, in a year defined by volatility, the depth of demand for mature vintages stood out.”

This was borne out across WineCap’s A year in review report, which described 2025 as a period of stabilisation after three years of attrition. As per the report, fine wine remained the most popular collectable and a top alternative asset, even as tariff threats and subdued sentiment muted activity in the first half of the year. According to WineCap, Q3 2025 delivered the first positive quarter since 2022, while Champagne, Tuscany, California and parts of Bordeaux began to reappear on investors’ radar after prolonged declines.

Tariffs tremors

The market’s early jitters were sparked by Donald Trump’s return to office and the spectre of 200% tariffs on EU alcohol. Buyers paused, demand slipped and capital shifted temporarily toward equities, property and currency. Yet alternative assets proved unexpectedly durable, with WineCap’s UK and US wealth reports showing that 58% of UK respondents and 74% of US respondents still viewed fine wine as an attractive store of value.

Stability arrived in July when Washington and Brussels settled on a far gentler 15% tariff. Clarity encouraged US buyers back into the market, especially for regions initially hit hardest, such as Champagne and Spain.

En Primeur

The Bordeaux En Primeur 2024 campaign faced a market heavy with caution. Many producers applied price cuts of 20 to 30% to stimulate demand in a region already undergoing a broad correction. Discounts rather than vintage character drove sales, although First Growths Lafite Rothschild and Mouton Rothschild emerged as relative successes. Critics described 2024 as a vintage suited to a reset, with white wines from Haut Brion and Domaine de Chevalier singled out for quality.

June brought Champagne’s first month-on-month gain in a year. The region had reached a long-awaited consolidation phase after leading cuvées such as Dom Pérignon, Cristal, Salon, Krug and Taittinger had drifted sideways for months. Champagne’s recognisability and cellaring strength helped it reclaim ground throughout the second half of 2025.

Italy also stirred. Tuscany in particular found favour as investors returned to Brunello and Super Tuscans including Sassicaia, Ornellaia and Masseto. Piedmont lagged as liquidity and brand reach guided investor preference. California, meanwhile, saw rising attention for cult labels such as Opus One and Screaming Eagle.

Auction theatre

Record figures dazzled the auction circuit. William I. Koch’s US$28.8 million sale and Jacqueline de Rothschild Piatigorsky’s US$11.16 million collection gave the impression of rampant appetite for blue chip wines. But WineCap stressed that such spectacles do not necessarily mirror the broader market. More telling was the 2025 Hospices de Beaune auction, which achieved €18.75 million, the third highest total in its 166 year history. With top cuvées such as the Bâtard Montrachet Grand Cru “Cuvée Dames de Flandres” fetching €400,000 per barrel, Burgundy’s reputation for mature and premium whites again shaped investor behaviour.

Q3 brings the first meaningful lift since 2022

According to WineCap, the fine wine market stabilised in Q3 as global economic sentiment warmed and expectations of steady rate cuts buoyed alternative assets. Champagne, the Rhône, Tuscany, California and First Growth Bordeaux drove this early equilibrium and continued to show resilience through the final quarter of the year. Scarcity, estate reputation and selective buying contributed to a sense that the market was bottoming out.

Looking to 2026

By Q4, WineCap described the fine wine market as emerging from its most protracted downturn in over ten years. Liquidity improved, prices steadied and more than half of the world’s most actively traded wines ended November in positive territory. Westgarth told db WineCap will watch the start of 2026 closely. “At the start of each year, we conduct our annual wealth manager survey in the UK and US. It gives a clear view of fine wine’s role within diversified portfolios.”

On secondary market health, he added, “One of the earliest signs of a real recovery is the narrowing of bid-offer spreads. When spreads tighten, it generally means confidence is returning, liquidity is improving and buyers and sellers are moving closer together in their expectations. Combined with improving trade volumes and stable pricing across key regions, these shifts help signal whether 2026’s recovery will be sustained rather than speculative.”

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