Letter to the editor: on wine’s cyclical versus structural challenges
In response to Matthew Deller MW’s recent article on wine’s market trajectory, Alfonso Cevola argues that the industry’s difficulties run deeper than a temporary downturn. He contends that wine’s recruitment pipeline has fractured – and that cultural shifts, not just economics, are to blame.
Dear editor,
I appreciate Matthew Deller MW’s thoughtful response to my piece on wine’s demographic challenges (“Wine is facing a cyclical adjustment, not crisis,” November 13). His historical context and industry experience provide valuable perspective, and I’m glad the piece sparked substantive debate.
Interestingly, Deller’s response acknowledges what I see as the core challenge, though we interpret it differently. He writes: “The social and cultural structures that once facilitated progression from casual interest to sustained engagement – family dining, workplace hospitality, restaurant culture – have weakened.”
This is precisely the structural problem I described. If the infrastructure that created wine drinkers has weakened, how does wine recruit the next generation? Wine literacy has historically developed through a clear pathway: commodity bottles in youth, gradual trading up as palates mature and incomes rise. That system appears to be breaking down.
Deller’s answer appears to be: emerging markets + historical precedent + confidence that wine adapts. His analysis of past recoveries from temperance movements, Prohibition, and the 2008 crisis is persuasive. But those challenges were policy-driven or economic shocks. What we’re seeing now is a cultural preference shift, which is fundamentally different and may be more permanent.
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The question of emerging markets is complex. While they offer growth potential, younger consumers globally are increasingly health-conscious and moderation-focused. Whether emerging markets will follow the same consumption patterns as previous generations remains to be seen.
I genuinely want to be wrong about this. Wine’s resilience over centuries is remarkable, and Deller’s industry experience carries considerable weight. But I’m struggling to see the mechanism for Gen Z recruitment that would support his cyclical interpretation. The industry needs to identify that pathway, not simply trust that wine will adapt as it has before.
Deller frames this as cyclical adjustment within a maturing category. I see a recruitment pipeline that’s broken. The data supports both interpretations. The question is: which one should guide industry strategy?
I’m grateful for the conversation and open to being convinced otherwise. If Deller or others can show me the pathway I’m missing, I’d welcome that correction. But I need to see the mechanism, not just confidence in wine’s endurance.
Best regards,
Alfonso Cevola
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Dear editor,
I read Alfonso Cevola’s letter with great interest. I agree with him that the traditional “recruitment pipeline” for wine is under pressure – but I’m not as pessimistic about younger generations.
From my perspective as a long-time Bordeaux wine merchant in Switzerland, a big part of the problem comes from runaway premiumisation and the way we talk about wine. A small group of “Formula 1” wines – in Italy, Bordeaux, Burgundy, Spain – has pulled the whole category upwards in price, image and expectations. That is fine for a few genuine icons, but when too many producers start behaving as if they are F1 stars, they become untouchable for the average consumer who simply wants to share a good bottle at the table, without fuss.
At the same time, the speculative game around “investable” grands crus has sent the message that fine wine is either a financial product or a luxury trophy – and that if you don’t enjoy it with the “right” tasting vocabulary, you are somehow not worthy of drinking it. Many normal drinkers have quietly stepped away from that game.
Yet when you remove the noise, the appetite is still there. My young associate recently poured a small selection of well-chosen, fairly priced wines at a modest, low-budget stand in a wine fair. No fancy design, no luxury decor. For four days, the stand was packed – especially with 30- to 40-year-olds who were simply happy to discover good wines they could afford and understand.
So I don’t believe the younger generation has turned its back on wine. I believe we have made wine look remote, complicated and financially out of reach. If we bring it back down to earth – with honest pricing, simpler language and less “flon-flon” around prestige – the recruitment mechanism may be easier to fix than we think.
Best regards,
Bruno Gueuning
Bordeaux wine merchant, Switzerland
Bruno, thank you for this thoughtful perspective. I think you’ve identified something crucial – premiumization and the ‘Formula 1’ effect are part of how the recruitment pipeline broke. Your wine fair example is exactly the kind of concrete evidence I was hoping to see: when wine is accessible, affordable, and free of pretension, younger consumers show up. The question then becomes: how do we scale that approach across an industry that’s increasingly oriented toward luxury positioning? Your point about wine becoming ‘remote, complicated and financially out of reach’ aligns perfectly with the cultural shift I’m describing. Perhaps the structural challenge and the premiumization problem are two sides of the same coin.
Beautifully and compellingly said Alfonso, and I’m sure Matthew too would like to see a concrete on-ramp.
Over the last year, as part of the videos we’ve done for Come Over October, I’ve asked dozens of wine professionals how they think new wine drinkers (of all ages) can be “recruited” into experiencing the pleasures of wine. As yet, solid, grassroots answers are too few.
Karen, thank you – and the fact that wine professionals don’t have solid answers to the recruitment question is itself revealing. It suggests we’re dealing with something fundamentally different than past challenges. I’d be very interested to hear what patterns emerged from your Come Over October conversations. Even the absence of consensus might point us toward what needs to change.