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Global alcoholic drinks volume to see further declines

13 November 2025 By Jessica Mason

The sales volume of alcoholic drinks sold globally this year has been projected to decline even further than initially expected, according to the IWSR’s mid-year forecast.

The sales volume of alcoholic drinks sold globally this year has been projected to decline even further than initially expected, according to the IWSR’s mid-year forecast.

The main cause for the lowered projection is down to an unexpected drop in beer volume which has been driven mostly by economic and political pressures in the US and China.

The slowdown

The stage had already been set for declines during 2025 with the IWSR previously revealing a -0.2% year-on-year prediction. However, now, IWSR analysts have forecast a -0.4% global beverage alcohol volume to decline for 2025.

In a broad assessment of the situation, the drinks business has looked at how many alcoholic drinks companies are currently facing a slowdown as consumer habits shift. Added to this, recent figures from Pernod Ricard and Treasury Wine Estates have also illustrated how the impact of reduced volume sales across the US and China have started to affect the sector and echoed the sentiments that the analysts have noted. A global shift in drinking habits and trends has wiped out more than US$800 billion from the value of leading alcohol companies. Now, the statistics are also reflecting there could be more to come.

Revised forecasts

In value terms, IWSR is now also estimating a year-on-year decline of -0.7% for alcoholic drinks globally. This is down from the previous forecast of -0.5%.

Despite these protections, IWSR’s 2026 global beverage alcohol growth forecasts from six months prior (0% in both volume and value terms) remain unchanged.

Breaking down the drinks categories, the IWSR has revealed it now anticipates global beer volume to decline in 2025 by -0.2%, global spirits volume to decline by -1.3% and global wine volume to decline by -2.4%.

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Amid these predictions, it has identified that the global volume of Ready to Drink (RTD) beverages is forecast to grow in 2025 by +1.3%.

Beer loses out

As seen in the initial 2025 forecast issued in May, beer volume had been expected to grow by +0.2%. However, because of beer’s larger serving volumes compared to other drinks, as well as changes in beer consumption, this leads to a disproportionate effect on total alcoholic drinks volume figures.

IWSR managing director and president Marten Lodewijks said: “Beer consumption is particularly tied to going out to bars and restaurants, but consumers in the US are choosing to stay at home more than expected because of cost-of-living pressures. When consumers buy alcohol to entertain at home, they make different purchasing decisions, and beer often loses out.”

Offering more perspective on how things have changed in the US, Lodewijks explained: “Another pressure on beer volume in the US has been a marked decline in Mexican beer, which has been a key driver of US beer consumption for many years. Political and economic uncertainty among Hispanic consumers has brought down Mexican beer volumes, further dampening overall beer consumption.”

Government crackdown in China

Hinting at what had happened in the East, Lodewijks added: “In China, consumption has been hit by a government crackdown on luxury goods and a ban on alcohol at public sector events. Weaker than expected economic growth is also reducing spending at bars and restaurants as well as beverage alcohol spend generally. Reflecting this, beer and brandy volume forecasts for China have been adjusted downwards (although other categories remain largely unchanged).”