Loss of US fine wine buyers following Trump tariffs akin to the ‘exodus’ of Asian buyers in 2010

US buyers of fine wine have remained wary and “at bay” in the months following the imposition of Trump’s tariffs, Liv-ex has said, their “exodus” triggering “some of the sharpest declines” since the downturn began.

In a recent webinar Liv-ex’s market analyst of market intelligence Sophia Gilmour said that the “importance of US buyers had perhaps not been fully realized until their exodus”, noting that it was “almost akin to that of Asian buyers in the late 2000s.”

Outlining the defining trends of the year, Gilmour noted that at the start of this year, the outlook was positive, with traded volumes up, prices seeing minimal declines and an area of positivity in the market. “The first quarter looked solid and we saw some stability,” she said. “A recovery, or at least sideways movement, looked likely.”

However, this changed in March with the threat of trade tariffs and “immediately” US buyers – whose market share had grown to 35% of traded value in 2024 – withdrew their bids.

“Traded volumes dropped, and soon after, so too did prices,” she said.

She explained that not only had the US become a key buying segment within fine wine, but also generally bought at higher prices, or at closer to the market than EU, UK or Asian buyers. Moreover, US buyers tend to be more adventurous in their purchasing, buying a large portion of buying of wines from Spain, the Rhone, Piedmont, Montalcino and other regions.

“The importance of US buyers had perhaps not been fully realized until their exodus was almost akin to that of Asian buyers in the late 2000s,” she said. “Just as the withdrawal of Asian buyers in 2010-11 created a sudden supply and demand imbalance, the withdrawal of US buyers highlighted the moderating effects that they’ve been having on prices,” she said. “Following that Exodus, we saw some of the sharpest declines we had seen since the start of the downtown.”

Despite US tariffs settling at 15% in August, the US remained “at bay” during the summer, she said, as the market absorbed the impact of the unsuccessful en primeur campaign, increasing scepticism from the on-premise and prices that continued to fall.

However “prices had lowered to levels that were beginning to attract buyers”, she said.

“Indices like the Champagne 50, which were most supported by US buyers, having been the first to see serious declines in April and May are the ones that are now seeing up.”

Similarly, the “notoriously overpriced” Bordeaux 2021 vintage, which had seen tumbling prices, saw some upticks in trades.

Overall,the fine wine market is “through the worst of downturns”, Liv-ex said, after seeing “some very encouraging moves” in recent weeks. This included an improvement in the bid:offer ratio of the Liv-ex 100, which signifies a measure of market confidence as well as a decrease in the average spread between bids and offers.

This meant that buyers and sellers are “aligning on the price”, Gilmour pointed out.

Several key indices have also returned to their 2020 lows, meaning pre-Covid bull run levels “at which there had previously been demand”.

In other regions, Asian demand has also started to return to the market, in part driven by depletions in the market in Hong Kong. This saw Hong Kong buyers of Burgundy (particularly white Burgundy) rise for the first time in several years, while Californian Cabernet (notably Harlem and Opus One) were also showing growth.

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