‘It’ll be a shrinking category until it’s rediscovered’: predicting Port’s future
It’s fair to say that Port has had a rough time of it, with punters increasingly opting for light, low-ABV alcohol – everything Port is not. While winemakers in the Douro Valley are hopeful for the future, with demand for tawnies and premium bottles expected to flourish, they’re realistic: “It may decline in the next five years, but in the next 10 it has an optimistic future.” Amelie Maurice-Jones reports
Globally, the Port wine market was priced at $970.8m in 2023, projected to climb at a CAGR of 5.3% from 2024 to 2030. Despite overall market growth, there’s been a decline in case sales over the past 20 years, with 7.3m cases sold in 2023 versus 8.7m in 2013. In general, consumers are falling out of love with heavy, red wine, but winemakers are pushing to revitalise Port’s image through cocktails, innovative marketing and food pairings.
But the big question is, will it be enough to revive the fortified wine? Port producers share their forecasts with the drinks business. While demand for premium Port and Tawnies is expected to swell, supported by tourism in Portugal, some warn things could get worse before they get better.
Previously speaking to db, Churchill’s co-CEO Ben Himowitz proclaimed, “Port is ready for a resurgence.” He explains what this might look like: “Age-wood Ports are the fastest growing category, and Port is premiumising across categories. So, residual perceptions of the category, which are that it’s a holiday drink and not particularly elevated, are shifting as people are starting to think of it as an aged, crafted liquid that feels special and elevated.”
Premium positives
Data reflects the growing preference for premium Port. Premium sales equate to 50% of the value of all Port sold, Forbes reported last year. But a push for upmarket booze also prompts problems for Port. “It’s affecting volume and channel strategy across the industry, as we are seeing a decline in that cheap, cheerful side of Port, and much more engagement with the fine wine side,” Himowitz continues.
Luckily, this does go hand-in-hand with the mixology boom: “If you look at the craft cocktail movement, there is a heavy focus on quality liquid, like craft spirits and craft liqueur.” But on the flipside, this premiumisation also suits Port-served-neat. “It’s not your average table wine, it’s not just a beer. It has that specialness and uniqueness of a cocktail, but maybe a bit more simplicity to it. Port delivers on that in a really meaningful way.”
For Himowitz, there’s plenty of reason to get excited about Port, whether it’s the unique blends hitting the market, or limited editions and experimental runs. “It brings more variety into the space,” adds the co-CEO.
George Sandeman, consultant at Sogrape, hopes Port will become, not just “something you break out for Christmas when your mother-in-law comes over, but something people will make a nice Sangria with in the summertime.”
He also predicts premium Port will continue to flourish, and believes there will “always be a demand for vintage Port”.
Partner Content
Cautious optimism
Despite harbouring out hope for the fortified wine’s future, and celebrating its resurgence in the mixology scene, Sandeman warned: “This doesn’t mean places like South Korea, which suddenly discovered and became interested in Port, will grow, and it doesn’t mean the cocktail scene, which spread among the ecosystem of mixologists, is worldwide.”
He adds: “It’ll be a shrinking category until it’s discovered.” But in Bourbon there’s cause for hope: “It became obsolete, nobody drank it, then it became the drink of statements.”
These things are cyclical, says Sandeman. “It may decline in the next five years, but in the next 10 it has an optimistic future.”
For Kit Weaver, who’s among the third generation of owners heading up Port house Quinta de la Rosa, this cyclicity makes the future of Port hard to predict. He has a stab at it though: “I think Port and mixology will continue to grow as they are an obvious pairing, and producers and mixologists have a better working relationship than ever. We’ve seen false dawns with the rise of White Port and Tonic which has been threatening to take off for many years, but I do think it will continue to grow.”
Then, the ‘soft marketing’ of Portuguese culture and cuisine, taking off in places like London, will “no doubt help us consolidate and grow,” Weaver adds.
Tourism boost
Adrian Bridge, the CEO of The Fladgate Partnership, also forecasts the category will continue to premiumise, with demand for Tawny Ports growing. He also thinks Portugal’s tourism push will continue to drive Port consumption, with the number of international visitors surging by 6.7% in 2024: the country’s vibrant mix of hotels and restaurants provide surplus occasions to showcase Port in different contexts.
While wine tourism is a “huge opportunity” for the category, Bridge warns that producers shouldn’t go about it in exactly the same way. For instance, Fladgate certainly thought outside of the box when it launched a Chocolate Story museum in its World of Wine complex, where guests watch chocolate being made from bean to bar, before tasting it with Port wine. Then there’s Symington’s €6m three-storey townhouse, Matriarca, which Rob Symington told db aims to “reinvent the traditional members’ club”; but then winelovers can also take the more traditional route, exploring a whole host of Port tastings in the city’s web of wine cellars.
But, looking ahead, Richard Mayson, fortified wine consultant and author of Port and the Douro, has doubts. “It’s very difficult when the market is trending against fortified wines, and red wines in particular,” he points out. “Port is seen as red and high in alcohol, which is what the market is against.”
His advice for winemakers? “Focus on quality.” But, he adds, this is what the majority of producers have already been doing for the past 20 years.
Related news
All the medallists from The Global Fortified Masters 2025
