Is now the right time to buy champagne?

After a run of quality vintages and strong trade volumes, Champagne is starting to look like a solid bet, according to Liv-ex. 

While Champagne, more so than the likes of blue-chip Bordeaux and red Burgundy, lends itself to immediate drinking, it presents an increasingly interesting buying opportunity. The past two decades have seen an excellent run of vintages, but there are concerns that climate change (heat and erratic weather patterns) will impact the region’s ability to produce its characteristically delicate and vibrant wines. Which Champagnes now look well-priced?

The Champagne 50

The Champagne 50 index, unlike the broader market, remains a way off its 2020 lows. Without this support and having crossed below its medium-term trend line, its position remains precarious. But, with its volatility decreasing and trade volumes remaining strong as the market begins to stabilise, a full retracement back to 2020 levels appears increasingly unlikely. Rather, recent price movements point to the likelihood of a consolidation at a higher level.

The Grandes Marques – which look best-positioned?

Breaking down the Liv-ex Champagne 50 into its components, we can see some brands showing signs of stabilising. Bollinger’s Grande Année, for example, having seen a more sustainable rise during the Covid-19 bull run, is up over the past year. Krug, while one of the more volatile indices, has recently ticked up on its long-term trend line.

Supply-demand balance – finding the sweet spot

Considering bid:offer ratios across Champagne, it is not the grandes marques, but smaller grower Champagnes that appear to have the healthiest supply-demand balance. Egly-Ouriet boasts the region’s highest current bid:offer ratio (0.74 by value and 1.2 by volume). Bérèche Père et Fils, Jacquesson and Les Monts Fournois also sit high on this list. This, however, has not translated into decent trade volumes. Looking further down the list, where relatively healthy ratios are met by high volumes of trade, may be more fruitful for those seeking safer opportunities.

Salon has the highest bid:offer ratio of the more frequently traded Champagnes – 0.48 by value. As one of the scarcer Champagnes, it is less commonly available under better market conditions – at the peak, the value of Salon bids outweighed offers almost four times over. This m

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arket thus presents an opportunity for potential buyers, but demand remains high enough to keep sellers from capitulating.

While prices of Salon are unlikely to enjoy a strong trend reversal – its current supply-demand balance keeps prices from extreme movements – they have been falling less sharply since mid-2024, forming a descending wedge pattern.

Individual Salon vintages, such as 2007, are already seeing some evidence of this, backed by decent trade levels. Salon 2006 and 1996, both of which are exhibiting a similar consolidation pattern, exemplify the protection afforded by healthy trade levels. The steepest price declines occurred in 2023, both seeing little or no trade during this time.