Reading the tea leaves of the global fine wine market

What can a difficult couple of years tell us about fine wine’s trajectory? Stuart Dale, founder and chief wine officer of Crop & Vine, gives db his take on the market’s position and the opportunities it offers.

“If you were to rewind the clock five years and predict the state of the fine wine and spirits market today,” says Stuart Dale, founder of Crop & Vine, “few would have foreseen the turbulence we’ve encountered. From global economic shifts to evolving consumer behaviours, the landscape has changed dramatically, and understanding these movements is crucial for collectors and investors alike.”

Understanding those movements is also crucial for Dale. In his role as chief wine officer at the company, he spearheads Crop & Vine’s efforts to source and sell some of the world’s finest wines. Understanding the markets is both serious business and serious pleasure to him.

As the wine world has digested the recent Bordeaux en primeur campaign, he sees lessons to learn from the last few years. Although he cannot predict the future of fine wine markets, looking at its recent fortunes can offer useful insights for those looking to build their fine wine collection.

An uncertain backdrop

His first assessment is somewhat stark: “The past two years or so have been universally challenging across the fine wine sector. Once high-flying regions such as Burgundy and some of the top Rhônes have seen some of the sharpest declines, a stark contrast to the rapid price increases seen pre-2022.”

These challenges are not just a blip in the market or the impact of one vintage, but rather they are responses to much larger forces. Global finances – in particular, stubbornly high interest rates (thankfully for the wine market at least this is changing with the UK recently dropping rates to a two year low in an effort to boost the economy) – have fuelled price corrections. With banks able to offer relatively high returns without risk, holding onto other assets becomes a less enticing prospect.

“The days of scarcity-driven surges are behind us,” Dale explains, “and caution has taken center stage among stockholders. High interest rates made borrowing less attractive, forcing merchants and investors to be highly selective in their purchases.”

Just as important, if less easy to rationalise, are global tariff regimes. With deals being thrashed out and elections shifting national priorities, any form of global commerce is notably unpredictable at the moment.

Still, Dale does not believe that it is all bad news: “As we move through 2025 there are pockets of optimism among the general trade and collectors alike and downturns, such as the regional ones mentioned, also present rare buying opportunities – particularly for those who understand historical cycles and have a long-term vision.”

Lessons from the last two years

Having worked all over the world, including the Middle East (which might explain his love of Chateau Musar!), European and Asian markets, in which Crop & Vine is based, Dale has a deep awareness of the global markets. Moreover, since its launch in 2021, navigating release campaigns has been essential to Crop & Vine’s success.

Certainly, he believes that there are lessons to be learned from the last few en primeur campaigns. Indeed, he describes them as “missed opportunities”.

“Despite some exceptional and interesting vintages,” he says, “the market was not in a position to absorb them at elevated prices. While the 2023 vintage saw some price corrections, they were not deep enough to reignite global enthusiasm.”

As the sector looks back on the 2024 vintage, Dale believes that again there was a missed opportunity to jump start the market. While some prices were attractive, overall it was not significant enough to bring buyers back in the required volumes that would address the major concern Bordeaux has about justifying the en primeur system as a whole. He also notes the role and impact of wine funds or distressed sellers in the market, who are in general either not buying or looking to liquidate wines which puts additional downward pressure on prices.

Where to look now

There is no crystal ball that can predict the market, but Dale can offer some pointers for those thinking of purchasing. “Predicting the future in a volatile market is a challenge,” he says, “but one thing is clear, being nimble and selective is key. Buying opportunities exist across all levels of the market, but being selective is crucial and will be helped with the recent interest rates cuts.”

With his extensive experience in the sector, therefore, Dale can offer some suggestions for when collectors may seek to invest.

Addressing the most current releases, he sees that Bordeaux, while down in terms of value, is still holding its ground as one of the most actively traded and liquid fine wine hubs.

Champagne, meanwhile, “has not been immune to similar declines over the last two years and has been one of the standout performers over the last 3-5 years, showing a little more resilience” according to Dale. There is also a notable increase in ex-châteaux older vintages from Bordeaux that are seldom seen in the market being offered as both negociants and chateaux look for new revenue streams given the declines in en primeur.

Dale believes that both Burgundy and some of the top Rhône’s have shown steep declines over the last couple of years and consumers have moved to regions offering better value; they are seeing, however, more activity recently as we may have hit the tipping point that brings buyers back to the these regions, given current prices.

Elsewhere in the world, he singles out Italy and the US for their “exceptional quality at more reasonable price points”. With quality vintages drawing particular attention, they could be growing hotspots for fine wine collectors.

That is not to discount, however, the importance of drinking pleasure. Dale’s ultimate advice is to balance a knowledge of the market – which Crop & Vine can help you navigate – with the wines that you love.

Dale says – with access to the global fine wine markets in mind – “at Crop & Vine, our mission has always been to combine deep industry expertise from around the globe with cutting-edge technology to offer clients transparency, value, and a trusted partnership.” Dale continues: “our aim is to support the seasoned collector or a newcomer looking to explore the market”.

“The best approach is to focus on wines with undeniable value, those with strong historical performance, and those that remain a joy to drink regardless of market fluctuations,” he says.

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