Which Bordeaux vintages have been the most profitable?

Investing in Bordeaux en primeur is a recurring topic of discussion before each campaign. Factors such as the quality of the new vintage, allocations and current market conditions are on the minds of the trade when considering whether and what to buy. The key determinant, however, is price, argues Liv-ex. 

The average price of the 2010 vintage, offered at record levels during the China-led bull run in 2011, had declined by 11% by the time the vintage became physically available two years later. This is just one of the examples where the inherent promise of future returns has not been immediately fulfilled.

According to a 2020 Liv-ex survey, merchant opinion was divided over the significance of en primeur. Of the respondents, 38% disagreed that it is the most important buying event of the year; another 17% were neutral. As last year’s opening report said, wine has been slower to sell.

But buying wine for investment is a long-term game, and en primeur continues to attract global interest. Today, the total margin since release (the average increase from the château release through to the price today) of some Bordeaux vintages exceeds 200%. Here we examine which have been the most profitable vintages for the supply chain from today’s perspective.

To calculate the average margins, Liv-ex calculated the average ex-château, exnégociant, ex-London and current mid-prices of the wines in the Bordeaux 500 index and split them by vintage. The margin was estimated based on the difference between the price at each point of delivery.

For the négociants 

In the en primeur system, négociants buy from the châteaux, and are the first to apply a margin. Négociants have consistent margins on most vintages (17% on average), with 2014 providing a slight increase (22%). The 2008 has been the lowest-priced vintage since 2005, with an average ex-château price of €61 (£50.90) per bottle for the wines in the Bordeaux 500 index. The 2014 was also among the more affordable offerings, at €90 per bottle. The 2019, viewed as an ‘on’ vintage, was released at €115 per bottle on average. This represented a discount on the previous year, and the campaign, launched amid the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic, revived the buying appetite for en primeur.

For UK merchants

UK merchants, who buy from the Bordeaux négociants and then sell on to their customers, have applied the highest margins on the 2005 (23%), 2008 (20%) and 2009 (25%) vintages.

The average price of the 2005 ex-négociant releases was €141 per bottle – around £96 per bottle at the time. UK merchants then offered the wine at £118 per bottle on average.

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