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Asian thirst for beer set for further growth
The Asian beer market is set to account for 38% of total global beer consumption by 2015, according to latest figures from industry analyst Canadean.
China will lead the way, drinking more than one in four of all beers consumed worldwide, according to Canadean’s Global Beer Trends report.
The Chinese beer market is expected to reach 573 million hectolitres by 2015 – twice the size of the world’s second-biggest beer market, the US.
Globally Canadean said beer consumption will reach 2 billion hectolitres by 2013. The report found that global growth is still relatively robust despite the global economic crisis, with a predicted average growth rate of 2.8% between 2009 and 2015.
According to Canadean, the global headline growth figure of the Global Beer Trends report masks significant differences in performance between major markets.
In terms of growth, Asian beer consumption is predicted to grow by 5% between 2009 and 2015.
The data also revealed that the African beer market is predicted to grow by the same amount, with Latin America expected to deliver a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of just over 3%, and the Middle East 5.5% over the same period.
Kazakhstan, Vietnam, Angola and India are predicted to register double-digit annual growth between 2009 and 2015, and the Vietnamese market is forecast to deliver over 8% of total incremental global beer volume between 2009 and 2015.
By contrast, the east European market is only expected to grow by 1.5%, while beer consumption in North America is forecast to deliver a CAGR of 0.5%. Western Europe is expected to register a marginal decline.
Germany, Netherlands, Canada, France and the UK are all expected to continue to decline and in west Europe only Finland, Italy, Norway, Portugal and Spain are expected to see any growth.
Canadean said the Russian beer market was hit harder than most countries by the economic crisis due to “the fall in consumer confidence caused by the global economic downturn” which was also enhanced by a tripling of the beer excise duty.
The report said: “This market was one of the star performers before the crisis, with a CAGR of over 11% between 1999 and 2008. However, 2009 saw a fall of nearly 4%, which was compounded by a further fall of 7% in 2010.”
However, Canadean predicts that the Russian market will return to growth, although it will not touch on pre-crisis levels.
Canadean predicts a CAGR of just under 4% for the period 2011 to 2015, assuming there are no further rise in excise duty, or legislative restrictions on beer sales.
Overall, Canadean said it saw the global beer market growth slowing slightly, but with average global per capita consumption forecast at 30 litres per capita in 2015, it said “there is still plenty of potential for further growth”.
Alan Lodge, 10.11.2010