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Sunday 5 July 2015

Beyond the blog: is fine wine recovering?

29th August, 2014 by Tom Bruce Gardyne

Liv-ex has been tracking the ratio of bids to offers for signs of a recovery in the fine wine trade, and in the week to 21 August recorded it had hit 0.46, the highest since March.

Cos d’Estournel

Cos ’03 looks ripe for an upturn

“It is only a guide,” said Anthony Maxwell, head of exchange, “But the past suggests that once the bid/offer ratio goes over 0.50 (half the value of bids to offers), then prices start to rise, although this of course not a certainty.”

While Liv-ex doesn’t advise as such, Maxwell added that, “2005 left banks, as well as 100 pointer (non-firsts) from 2009 look the right price and right for an upturn. Otherwise it’s Cos ’03 [“super second” Cos d’Estournel] and some Montrose with people taking a view on Robert Parker’s scores released later this week, and elsewhere more activity around Carruades ’12, which will become physical in September.”

Port also saw a slight bounce thanks to trade for Quinta do Noval, Nacional 2011, released last year. “There tends to be an uptick in September to October in the run-up for Christmas,” says Maxwell.

“Here though I think it was more a case of offer prices that encouraged buyers for stock.”   ​

Top 5 by value_21Aug

Soucre: Liv-ex

Top 5 by volume_21Aug

Source: Liv-ex

Liv-ex 50_four weeks

Source: Liv-ex

Beyond the blog is run is association with Liv-ex.

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